Soviet Domination - A Red Dawn story

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April 1980:

The Soviet Union hadn’t long been an oil exporting state. The entry into the oil export market had come after the 1973 Oil Crisis and continued since then. Along with natural gas, oil was being sold to hungry consumers around the world at a tremendous rate of supply. The hydrocarbon exports were seeing a flood of money coming into the state coffers. Oil and gas wasn’t traded in rubles when it was brought by the West but instead in US dollars, UK sterling and West German marks. This foreign currency – far more valuable that rubles on the international markets – was then used by Moscow to purchase grain, technology and consumer goods from aboard. There was the usual Soviet corruption, pilferage and shoddy standards, but the money kept rolling in. It was then spent just as fast too. The revenues earned were of vital importance to the state. The Soviets were now addicted to the income gained and what they could buy using it. Oil and gas kept on being supplied to the capitalists and in exchange there was all of that money put to good use. Moscow didn’t want it all to stop and couldn’t imagine a scenario where it ever would. Yet, threats to this money tree were growing near and far.

In response to the revolution in Iran, OPEC had raised oil prices. The members in the Middle East but also other nations part of that oil cartel (in South America, Africa and Asia) had decided to cash in on fears in the West about shortages. A decision had been made in Moscow to adopt a wait-and-see approach on copying that and instead for the time being gain new customers when the West saw ‘the Arabs being difficult’. The West hadn’t done as anticipated though. Market forces and innovation had come into play as well as government measures taken. New sources of oil were sought, including those already discovered and previously not opened up due to them not being cost-effective: the Alaskan fields, North Sea oil and Mexico being examples of this. Governments pushed for the use of alternatives instead of oil as well. Oil was still being purchased from Soviet sources, more than before in fact, just not in the quantities what the predictions had said it would. Oil price speculators – some of the worst excesses of capitalism as far as Moscow was concerned – interfered too, affecting Soviet exports indirectly as well in something that couldn’t be controlled.

The Soviets wanted that revenue. They wanted the money to keep coming and for it to increase as well. The threats to the money tree were to be taken on. More news was leaked from Iran – using disguised sources – to suggest that the destruction that was even worse than it actually was… and that was pretty bad regardless. Saddam in Iraq and the Emir of Kuwait, those with friendly relations with Moscow, were contacted and requests made when it came to their influence with OPEC to keep oil prices high from there: the two countries would benefit from that and the Soviet Union would benefit in a different way. There were anti-nuclear power movements in the West, many of them desperate for assistance in spreading their message of the dangers from that: funds would be sent to them, also from disguised sources. Moscow couldn’t play the games that the capitalists played – there was a belief that this was all being controlled by nefarious cabals – but they could play their own. They wanted the West to keep buying their oil. If these measures didn’t work, others were a possibility in the long-term. One of those being spreading instability in rival oil producing countries. If everything went wrong, if the West cut back demand and the revenues dried up, that could only spell disaster for the Soviet Union so that scenario would be avoided at all cost.

One of those games played by the capitalists was the talk of what some were calling the possibility of an ‘oil glut’. That idea was rubbished in Moscow. There could be no such thing considered as possible because that would contrast with the belief that Soviet oil should be sold in quantity to the West to make the state richer. The system didn’t allow for contradictions against state policy.

Iran is still a member. I haven't thought about that so I will, thanks.

Yeah, I like that. Membership suspended during the revolution and Iran going crazy with diplomatic manoeuvres.

I'm not exactly sure on that.
Due to different events in Iran, there has been no Grand Mosque Seizure nor the Islamabad riots later. Because Khomeini never reached power, I decided that the first wouldn't take place and then the second wouldn't. This has changed things in the Middle East. Though before then there were other changes with no Camp David Accords: no official peace between Egypt and Israel means Israeli troops in the Sinai still as well as Sadat still being alive. It all means that in the following years, the Middle East is different. It gives me several angles to use with those massive changes.
What this means with regard to trouble in Saudi would be there might be none or a different sort.

If i was Somoza i would go into hiding to prevent a accident from taking place.

So he might be assassinated while in exile in Miami.

(39)

June 1980:

Did the Loss of Nicaragua have an effect upon the presidential primaries taking place in the United States? Yes, it did. A late effect and one difficult to exactly explain in how voters reacted but one certainty. So did many other things though. There were effects coming from other wars in Central America, the situation with a Soviet presence in Iran and then all of the domestic issues as well. The last of the primaries were on June 3rd and with Somoza running for his life only days beforehand, by that point most Americans had already either cast their ballots in those primaries or made their minds up on how they would vote in the final round of nationwide voting for the Democratic and Republican primaries. Moreover, the final winners were already de facto victors anyway at that late stage. Kennedy and Reagan only needed the formality of confirmation votes by delegates in the upcoming party conventions.

For Kennedy, Iowa and New Hampshire were the start of a winning streak that took him all the way to the final wins he made in early June taking the delegate-rich states of California and New Jersey. That was what the primary race was all about: winning delegates for the convention. He had had other big wins in the race – Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York and Texas chief among them – as well as many smaller victories as well. His popular vote count beat his competitor’s numbers too by a significant amount. Scoop Jackson had dropped out of the race in early April after no victories and finally running out of money; Brown and Mondale stayed in until the end even when it was mathematically-impossible to win because they desired to peg Kennedy back some and allow for a contested convention. Mondale had won rewarding victories like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio while Brown’s most success had been with Maryland. None of those mattered in the end though because along with California and New Jersey in the final round, Kennedy took five more wins that day and proclaimed victory in the whole race. The media agreed with him. The party establishment was still unhappy at Kennedy’s campaign statements along with part – though not all – of his ideological outlook, but they had by now finally recognised that he would be their candidate for president. Brown and Mondale weren’t going to get support in making it a contested convention.

It was a similar story with Reagan. His opening victories in the first, attention-grabbing contests were followed by further victories. South Carolina was a major early win and then Reagan ‘swept the south’ by taking Alabama, Florida and Georgia in one swoop. His appeal was shown to be nationwide when detractors had said previously that it wasn’t. Dole took victories in Massachusetts and Illinois (the latter where Reagan was born; everyone saw Reagan as being from California though) before the vice president was able to eek out the narrowest of wins in Pennsylvania. Maybe at that point, Reagan’s campaign wobbled somewhat because Dole had come very close to winning in Wisconsin weeks before and there was also some polling giving Reagan high negatives. Baker dropped out after Pennsylvania to endorse Reagan: he hadn’t won a single race by mid-April. Texas, Indiana, Tennessee (where Baker campaigned for Reagan), Michigan and Kentucky all went to Reagan though. Dole dropped back, far back. His comeback had been nothing of the sort. There were nine Republican contests on June 3rd and Reagan won each and every one of them, California included among them where his victory party was held. The next day, Dole conceded.

Unless something unexpected happened, it would be Kennedy versus Reagan in November with the winner becoming the fortieth president.