damien
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Post by damien on Oct 11, 2017 17:51:18 GMT
Basically Eurofed is a fan of big, often continent spanning and autocratic states. If he takes this further its almost certain Europe will end up being 'unified' by a Prussian dominated mega-Germany. The US will rule all of the Americas and often somehow takes over both its OTL colony in the Philippines and Australasia. He finds democracy and human rights and people wanting to govern themselves as messy and untidy. Something as you can possibly tell we're often 'debated' as I'm on the other end of the spectrum, being very much a liberal. Okay. So the US here would be said continent-spanning-autocratic state? No sweet land of liberty then? Yikes. However, just a temperature check on this pan-American United States: it's way too much way too early, especially as Louisiana isn't populated yet. If anything, 1812 means more favorable borders in the north at "most". Furthest Maine border, etc. Perhaps add on a claim to the Oregon territory as well, since the region hasn't been settled by either of the powers. (and by the Oregon Territory, I mean the US one, not the whole 54 40 line). That could lead to the US ending up with more later on, but the Louisiana purchased doubled the size of the country, and even that was sketchy. Everything else more than doubles it again. As for the Caribbean, "maybe" Cuba? Not sure how/why Spain gives it up.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 11, 2017 17:52:43 GMT
As for the Caribbean, "maybe" Cuba? Not sure how/why Spain gives it up. War of some one buying Cuba from them.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 12, 2017 17:23:27 GMT
Basically Eurofed is a fan of big, often continent spanning and autocratic states. If he takes this further its almost certain Europe will end up being 'unified' by a Prussian dominated mega-Germany. The US will rule all of the Americas and often somehow takes over both its OTL colony in the Philippines and Australasia. He finds democracy and human rights and people wanting to govern themselves as messy and untidy. Something as you can possibly tell we're often 'debated' as I'm on the other end of the spectrum, being very much a liberal. Okay. So the US here would be said continent-spanning-autocratic state? No sweet land of liberty then? Yikes. However, just a temperature check on this pan-American United States: it's way too much way too early, especially as Louisiana isn't populated yet. If anything, 1812 means more favorable borders in the north at "most". Furthest Maine border, etc. Perhaps add on a claim to the Oregon territory as well, since the region hasn't been settled by either of the powers. (and by the Oregon Territory, I mean the US one, not the whole 54 40 line). That could lead to the US ending up with more later on, but the Louisiana purchased doubled the size of the country, and even that was sketchy. Everything else more than doubles it again. As for the Caribbean, "maybe" Cuba? Not sure how/why Spain gives it up. Well autocratic by my terms. Still formally a democracy but basically a lot more centralised in terms of power and disapproving of alternative viewpoints. Plus no matter how popular it is and how willing the proponents of such a policy are to try democratic means and negotiation, any attempt to leave the union is OUT! Similarly in Europe, whatever is the core of the continental empire he desires, whether imperial Rome, the HRE, France at its height or a Prussian Germany areas like Bohemia and the Polish, Dutch and Swiss 'marches' will become totally Germanised, regardless of what their people want. He is generally a little more flexible in his American empire in that it becomes very tolerant of religion and abolishes slavery early on, generally without much conflict, but blindly assumes not only that those steps are easily practical but that everybody who comes under American 'rule' are happy to do so rather than resisting vigerously. As you say far too early for the US to get all of Canada, even if somehow they were invited or wished to attend an European Congress. Unless somehow Napoleon managed to get his army across the Channel, in which case there would be far greater butterflies! Could see some gains on the fringes but the US isn't really strong enough to take much of Canada, or hold it against a vengeful Britain seeking to liberate its people once Boney goes down. If the US got a more powerful navy earlier then possibly it could do what it did with Florida, making Spain "an offer it couldn't refuse". Taking control and then offering some compensation.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 12, 2017 17:25:08 GMT
If the US got a more powerful navy earlier then possibly it could do what it did with Florida, making Spain "an offer it couldn't refuse". Taking control and then offering some compensation. Ore putting Spain in such a position that the offer of the United States cannot be excepted thereby escalating tension between them resulting in a war.
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 12, 2017 17:29:24 GMT
I don't see any reason why TTL USA should be any less democratic or liberal because of earlier, greater territorial extension, nor I have any good reason for them to wish to be different given the circumstances. I do not have any ideological love or hate of democracy for its own sake. I often support it since I acknowledge a lot of the time it is the overall least harmful and most efficient available form of government, but I'm not blind to its serious flaws, such as demagoguery, tyranny of the majority, and pursuit of the least common denominator.
Theoretically speaking, I'm a big fan of libertarian anarchism at heart, even if I acknowledge it is effectively impractical and harmful at our current level of development and in a scarcity economy. How I yearn for the Singularity to make it possible. Since it makes little theoretical difference for me for social coercion to come from the will of one all-powerful dictator or millions of morons dominated by their impulses and prejudices, in different historical circumstances and scenarioes I can support democracy or authoritarianism according to what I perceive as the greatest practical benefit. Moreover, while I can often support democracy for its practical and utilitarian benefits, I acknowledge no benefit, validity, or redeeming value to nationalism and Balkanization whatsoever, they have been more or less as beneficial as cancer and plague to mankind.
The caveman urge to divide people according to insignificant cosmetic features, useless linguistic residues of our tribal past, or vicious, pathetic superstition has reaped but misery, strife, and waste for mankind, the more it gets suppressed, the better. Humans may be hardwired to work best in platoon-sized groups, but evolution made that kind of society impractical long ago. Past that point, all models of society are equally artifical, so there is no good reason not to expand their borders to the greatest size current technological level would afford, or at least as close to as historical circumstances would allow. As far as I'm concerned, people can have self-rule... by voting for their representatives in the Terran Federation, and all appropriate levels of devolved government from local to global, nothing more, nothing less. But if you ask me any support, sympathy, patience, or respect for say the Brexiters, Scots, or Catalans to set yet another harmful and divisive border, I have absolutely none to give.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 12, 2017 17:46:35 GMT
I don't see any reason why TTL USA should be any less democratic or liberal because of earlier, greater territorial extension, nor I have any good reason for them to wish to be different given the circumstances. I do not have any ideological love or hate of democracy for its own sake. I often support it since I acknowledge a lot of the time it is the overall least harmful and most efficient available form of government, but I'm not blind to its serious flaws, such as demagoguery, tyranny of the majority, and pursuit of the least common denominator. Theoretically speaking, I'm a big fan of libertarian anarchism at heart, even if I acknowledge it is effectively impractical and harmful at our current level of development and in a scarcity economy. How I yearn for the Singularity to make it possible. So it makes little theoretical difference for me for social coercion to come from the will of one all-powerful dictator or millions of morons dominated by their impulses and prejudices, in different historical circumstances and scenarioes I can support democracy or authoritarianism according to what I perceive as the greatest practical benefit. Moreover, while I can often support democracy for its practical and utilitarian benefits, I acknowledge no benefit, validity, or redeeming value to nationalism and Balkanization whatsoever, they have been more or less as beneficial as cancer and plague to mankind. The caveman urge to divide people according to insignificant cosmetic features, useless linguistic residues of our tribal past, or pathetic Bronze/Iron Age superstition has reaped but misery, strife, and waste for mankind, the more it gets suppressed, the better. Humans may be hardwired to work best in platoon-sized groups, but evolution made that kind of society impractical long ago. Past that point, all models of society are equally artifical, so there is no good reason not to expand their borders to the greatest size current technological level would afford, or at least as close to as historical circumstances would allow. As far as I'm concerned, people can have self-rule... by voting for their representatives in the Terran Federation, and appropriate levels of devolved government from local to continental, nothing more, nothing less. But if you ask me any support, sympathy, patience, or respect for say the Brexiters, Scots, or Catalans to set yet another harmful and divisive border, I have absolutely none to give. The problem is partly that you define 'harmful and divisive' borders as ones you don't like. Which includes most that have long existed in the world whether they have caused conflict or not. Often in your scenarios you make clear you prefer military conquest by one dominant power to force unity, which you blithly assume will then become relatively liberal and tolerant towards its subjects. Which is NOT the case history normally shows us. I have no problem with any number of states as long as they treat each other and their citizens with respect. True many states often fall short of this but the most destructive disasters in history have been from attempts of states to establish such dominance or of those states that achieve regional supremarcy to maintain the power of their elite regardless of the costs. Basically you find the victim of violence gulity for resisting it rather than the orginator of violence. Furthermore there are advantages to smaller states, both in terms of the greater competitiveness as a whole that results and the simple fact its more likely to keep leaders/rulers feet to the fire. I would be fully in favour of a unified Earth, achieved largely if not totally by peaceful means, provided there are alternatives sources of power and oppertunity for people to look to. Otherwise its something I would avoid like the plague - or more accuractely a flu bourne version of Ebola - as no matter its origins its all too likely to become autocratic and oppressive without effective checks.
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 12, 2017 17:53:23 GMT
Well autocratic by my terms. Still formally a democracy but basically a lot more centralised in terms of power and disapproving of alternative viewpoints. Plus no matter how popular it is and how willing the proponents of such a policy are to try democratic means and negotiation, any attempt to leave the union is OUT! Democratic choice of government and secession are two entirely different things, no matter how much partisans of nationalism like to mix them together. Since we achieved the Neolithic level of development, mankind has always had much more linguistic differentation than it has any productive use for, and usually it is an obstacle to cooperation and progress. If an imperial hegemony leads to lose some of it in Europe or elsewhere, it cannot be but for the better. If the Romans are the ones to unify the continent, Latin shall be the lingua franca, if the French French, if the Germans German. It doesn't make much of a difference to me, except I tend to regard certain languages superior to others in ease of use (e.g. Latin script vs. Chinese characters). I tend to be confident a sizable portion of people shall be more mindful of opportunities for peace, prosperity, and efficient government than of their tribal urges. There are plenty of example in history when practical benefits defeat nationalism.
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 13, 2017 15:23:05 GMT
A few notes: ITTL Brazil is more or less in the same position as OTL, the main differences are it lost the southern region to British South America (AKA Hispanic Canada 2.0) and the Braganza dynasty keeps its throne but lose the one of Portugal which was merged with Bourbon Spain. Personally I prefer to label states that are technically independent (i.e. not politically a colony or part of another state) as such, even if they are in a patron-client relationship with a stronger power. Of course, there may be different degree of propriety and accuracy about this, depending on the level of subordination, but I assume it is fitting in this case.
Yes, ITTL France gets a rather harsh peace that effectively reverses all its territorial gains of the last 200 years. It won't stop it from being a (revisionist) great power, though.
To be accurate, TTL USA is getting more territorial gains because of the separate effects of the PoD on North America, not because America takes part in the alt-Congress of Vienna or its peace settlement directly involves North America. Broadly speaking, it happens b/c the scenario is benefiting all great powers except defeated France in their respective turfs, so I thought it fitting if it boosts the USA, too. The OP assumes the USA gains Canada because it conquers it in a victorious Anglo-American war that occurs in the mid-1800s.
Since ITTL America is well-prepared for the conflict because of political changes and so overruns settled Canada and the war occurs when Napoleon is at the apex of his power, Britain writes off Canada as a lost cause much like it did for the 13 colonies in 1783. No, I don't think it is any politically plausible Britain would re-open the issue in war of revenge a decade later when it acted differently about the other lost colonies, even more so since it is making vast colonial gains elsewhere. If you have any overwhelming problems to believe America can reap a decisive victory in the War of 1812 regardless of circumstances, instead assume the USA gains Canada in the ARW instead, the PoD may be retrodated there if necessary. Because the USA gains settled Canada this way, its subsequent acquisition of Western Canada becomes more or less inevitable, one way or another.
America makes the stated territorial gains vs. Spain because it intervenes to support the Creole revolutionaries in the Spanish-American wars of independence. Spain lost the wars IOTL, its empire was in a state of rebellion and it was crippled by the Peninsular War and lingering domestic instability. It lost to the revolutionaries alone, if the USA intervenes it can only make its defeat quicker and more decisive. Domestic political changes (basically speaking, no or greatly depowered Jefferson presidency, much stronger Federalists) and early success in acquisition of Canada (which the Americans certainly wished to own, its admission to the Union was pre-approved in the Articles of Confederation) makes the USA much more enthusiastic about Manifest Destiny and Pan-Americanism since the beginning. Yes, in this period the USA may only be able to exercise effective control on the Great Lakes, the cis-Mississippi territory, and the Caribbean. Any sovereignty it may get on further territories in the peace treaties with Britain and Spain shall be nominal for some time, but it surely paves the way for most of North America to be gradually but inexorably absorbed by US internal colonization.
Much the same way, ITTL a partial partition of the Ottoman Empire with loss of all its European and Christian territories occurs. The Ottoman space was geopolitically part of Europe or the sphere of interest of the European powers in this period, so the post-Napoleonic peace settlement may certainly involve it. This may or may not be a direct effect of the peace settlement giving Russia and Austria a green light to act this way, the divergence causing greater Ottoman losses just before or during the Napoleonic Wars, or a mix of the above. The Ottoman Empire was already so weak and decaying in this period that if the European powers don't stalemate each other in keeping it artificially alive, its carving up and dismantlement is in the cards.
Russia gaining almost all of Poland and Romania (yes, this drastically revises the original partition settlement in Russia's favor, but IOTL Prussia and Russia supported it, ITTL Austria goes along with its neighbors' gains b/c it gets generous compensations elsewhere), Prussia getting most of North Germany, and Austria making vast gains in South Germany, Italy, and the Balkans are all integral parts of the scenario. My only uncertainty about this is whether Prussia gets Thuringia or Hesse in addition to the rest (Rhineland-Westphalia, Hanover, Saxony). On second thoughts, perhaps better Thuringia instead of Hesse unlike what I wrote in the OP but it could go both ways, really. Since ITTL Austria annexes Bavaria and the Habsburg were not really interested in owning western exclaves anymore (they were eager to get rid of the Southern Netherlands), someone else has to get Palatinate. If not Prussia, perhaps Lotharingia.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 13, 2017 15:28:29 GMT
A few notes: ITTL Brazil is more or less in the same position as OTL, the main differences are it lost the southern region to British South America (AKA Hispanic Canada 2.0) I do hope you have a good name for British South America than Hispanic Canada 2.0.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 13, 2017 15:33:17 GMT
Well autocratic by my terms. Still formally a democracy but basically a lot more centralised in terms of power and disapproving of alternative viewpoints. Plus no matter how popular it is and how willing the proponents of such a policy are to try democratic means and negotiation, any attempt to leave the union is OUT! Democratic choice of government and secession are two entirely different things, no matter how much partisans of nationalism like to mix them together. Since we achieved the Neolithic level of development, mankind has always had much more linguistic differentation than it has any productive use for, and usually it is an obstacle to cooperation and progress. If an imperial hegemony leads to lose some of it in Europe or elsewhere, it cannot be but for the better. If the Romans are the ones to unify the continent, Latin shall be the lingua franca, if the French French, if the Germans German. It doesn't make much of a difference to me, except I tend to regard certain languages superior to others in ease of use (e.g. Latin script vs. Chinese characters). I tend to be confident a sizable portion of people shall be more mindful of opportunities for peace, prosperity, and efficient government than of their tribal urges. There are plenty of example in history when practical benefits defeat nationalism. a) That is the stance of many autocrats or dominant groups who have gained power by military or other means and don't want to lose any of it. b) The problem with your assumption is twofold. i) That people are divided by far more than language, which means in itself your reply is inaccurate. ii) That this division is not in itself a bad thing. Its the desire to control others than tends to be the problem and that occurs as much in autocratic large empires than in smaller states and is generally far more destructive in such systems. c) The problem is often that some people who can't think any further than the barrel of a gun, or other means of controlling people, make the false assumption that mega states created by conquest are better, often generally because they seem to be simplier to control, than more, smalker states.
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 13, 2017 15:43:07 GMT
A few notes: ITTL Brazil is more or less in the same position as OTL, the main differences are it lost the southern region to British South America (AKA Hispanic Canada 2.0) I do hope you have a good name for British South America than Hispanic Canada 2.0. Surely the British government can think of some geopolitically fitting name (perhaps British Platine something) for their Southern Cone colonies, and 'Hispanic Canada 2.0' is of course tongue-in-cheek, but unlike the British ruling elites this AH author is rather creatively challenged about names.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 13, 2017 16:13:41 GMT
Any reason for it, other than that you desire this event? Especially since an earlier American attack, even if likely will face a number of problems. a) The Indians are more powerful and the American settlers less established. b) Without the friction from the British response to the French blockade the American attack on Britain is going to be even more unpopular in much of the US, especially in New England. c) Most of all, if the US seeks an attack when Napoleon is at the peak of his power, say 1805-06 their more likely to lose heavily. That's because with Britain without allies on the continent and no Spanish revolt it has forces and resources not tied down in the Peninsula campaign or subsidising continental allies. The likely effect is that Napoleon's empire lasts a bit longer, because Britain is busy in ~1805-10 [or whenever] beating up the US. I would still think that Napoleon will fall simply because he's too egotistical and autocratic and so eventually will make too many enemies. Britain gave up in 1783 in part because it didn't realise how weak the rebels were in some areas, because it was also fighting a large chunk of Europe and because there was somewhere for the displaced loyalists to go. Others risked making their peace with the revolution and manage to merge in with their former enemies. None of those factors apply to a [somehow] successful US land-grab in ~1805. You can expect unrest in much of Canada about being conquered and suppressed by a foreign power many of them left the southern colonies to avoid. Even more so for the French Canadians as their language and religious rights will be less in the US. While Britain, having won the war against Napoleon and emerging as the most powerful state in the world, have the chance to both liberate their people and gain revenge for a stab in the back while they were fighting desperately against Napoleon. In terms of an American conquest of Canada during the revolutionary period, other than other problems that leaves: a) The many loyalists nowhere to go. Which means there is a sizeable loyalist population who will be mistrusted by the victors and hence quite possibly continue to suffer persecution. b) Your assuming that royalist France, the ally above all others the rebels are reliant on, will be happy with their former subjects in Canada becoming subjects of the new American state. Question. If you really, really want a unified mega-state in N America why not take the simpliest solution? That any such revolution fails and N America is largely/totally unified as a larger British America? Actually the war in much of the Spanish colonies could have gone either way, at least for a while. OTL it succeeded in no small part because Britain had a strong economic and for some political reason for the rebels to win and famously because the British intervened to prevent the autocratic continental powers forming a coalition to restore Spanish control. [Doubt that would actually be able to last for long but possibly for a couple of decades. Think ultimately the rebels would have their freedom, but then I'm a liberal. ]. In your alternative case a much weaker power, the US, would be less capable of either helping to defeat the Spanish originally or later facing down a continental coalition. Furthermore since its aims, which would have been clarified by its actions against Canada, would be for land to conquor and settle, rather than access to trade. As such its also likely to be mistrusted a lot more than British aid was OTL. You do realise that a large proportion of the population of the empire in Europe at the time was Muslim? Also that the Orthodox are going to at least be in two minds about whether their better off under Ottoman or Catholic rule given the history of the latter. Furthermore, if your assuming it loses all Christian territories that shatters much of its Asian empire given how many minority groups there were scattered about the empire at this point. Also that even if Russia and Austria are able to make the sort of mass conquests you assume, while also holding down their other conquests, this would be awkward because other powers are allowing them to make what seems like major gains. [Doubt it would be in the Austrian case and I suspect the Russians would also have problems absorbing such massive areas]. Your going with a complex plan to carve up most of Europe between three great powers, ignoring everybody else. I know you don't think ordinary people matter but this is almost certain to result in a major war in the near future. Which is very likely to overturn such an unstable structure. As well as alien to the culture of those powers at the time. They wanted power and gains but they were all also deeply conservative and wanted to destroy the Franco-Napoleonic ideas and system, not copy it.
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 13, 2017 18:27:05 GMT
On my part, I have almost no problem at making North America mostly united by letting the British Empire avoid the loss of the 13 colonies with appropriate devolution reform in the 1750s, and subsequent victory against France and Spain to grab New France (like OTL), most of New Spain, and the Greater Antilles. My only problem at this is I regard the US version of the Anglosphere system/civilization rather more efficient and beneficial in the long term than the original British one, so if I have a choice about which one to boost into an hyperpower, I tend to prefer the improved 2.0 version. Then again, if we can concoct an appropriate PoD to turn the ARW crisis from an independence war into a revolution that transforms the British Empire at large into a US-style liberal federation, I'm onboard. Apart from this, my only issue about setting back the PoD at successful reform of British North America is the bigger amount of butterflies that are released for a scenario that is supposed to get fulfilled in the 1810s, and need to be harnessed to make the alt-Congress of Vienna scenario recognizable.
The Loyalists are a non-issue if the USA gets mainland Canada in the ARW or an (earlier) War of 1812. If they are really serious about leaving rather than becoming US citizens, they shall simply resettle to other portions of the British Empire, it is not as it lacked valuable free space suitable for settler colonization, such as Southern Africa, Australasia, possibly Southern Cone if it becomes British ITTL, to a degree even Newfoundland and the British West Indies which are outside US grasp in this period. Otherwise they shall assimilate in the larger USA if they care about comfort more than loyalism. There was nothing necessary or inevitable about them going to a different part of North America. The French Canadians shall assimilate fine in the USA because its system shall offer them more opportunities for autonomy, equality, and religious freedom (First Amendment, anyone?) than pre-1840 British colonialism. As it concerns the language issue, nobody in the rest of the USA shall have any serious problems with Quebec or even the federal government at large being bilingual or officially agnostic about language.
I tend to assume an earlier War of 1812 would best occur for America in 1807-09, not 1805-06, so in this period Britain is seriously engaged in the Peninsular War and not free to deploy the bulk of its power in North America, yet Napoleon is still the main problem for Britain for the foreseeable future, so the British may easily be prone to write off Canada well before Napoleon falls if the war in North America turns against them from the beginning. Apart from this, a necessary part of the divergence is a much better prepared US military due to political divergences in the 1790s-1800s (no Jeffersonian Presidency, longer Federalist dominance) this shall more than make up for the Natives being stronger. OTL shows royalist France had written off Quebec by the ARW since it made no attempt to get it back at the peace table. So it won't make any difference for them if the USA instead of Britain gets settled Canada in 1783.
The scenario assumes Britain shall act more or less the same way as OTL about the Spanish-American independence wars regardless of US opportunist intervention since the same factors apply: notice the scenario assumes the British get the Southern Cone as a colony and Brazil as a client. Loss of Canada to the Americans would have happened a decade or generation ago depending on PoD, and frankly Canada was not that valuable to the British Empire in this period to build a big grudge about it. Also notice the northern half of New Spain would be of very low value to British colonialism in these circumstances, so London would not care if the Americans make a land-grab about it. The Greater Antilles may or may not be a different issue.
Yes, if Ottoman rule in the Balkans collapses a century earlier than OTL, the vast majority of Muslims in the region shall be kicked out, but so what? The same happened IOTL after 1878 and 1913, a different time shall make no difference. As it concerns the Orthodox, the settlement would only make the ones in Serbia, Bosnia, and Oltenia Habsburg subjects. For most of them there had been a precedent in 1718-39 and it didn't go too bad. Most of them would find Habsburg rule a definite improvement to Ottoman misrule. Serious problems may indeed arise when nationalism becomes popular in the next generation, but this shall be an issue for the future. The point of this scenario is the great powers (except defeated France which is defeated) all make serious gains in their chosen turf, so they allow each other a green light. Yes, these massive losses shall screw up the Ottoman Empire and possibly send it to a fast trajectory to collapse, but ITTL the great powers made a decision they don't care, they shall deal with the issue if and when it occurs.
Please, the Congress of Vienna was pretty much the archetype of a consensus of tyrannical aristocratic great powers blatantly ignoring the wishes of the European peoples and writing the map of the continent in the way they liked. If they had cared about the wishes of ordinary people they had set up a united Germany and Italy, freed up Poland, kicked the Ottomans out of Europe, and strived to keep the best fruits of the French Revolution and Napoleonic reforms instead of imposing an unholy mix of the worst aspects of the Ancient Regime and Napoleonic despotism. ITTL they simply do it in a different way, but it is wholly unreasonable to argue TTL settlement is any more coercitive than OTL because it goes contrary to your wishes for more particularism and Balkanization. Arguably it goes closer to the wishes of the peoples as expressed by subsequent revolutionary movements, such as making Germany and Italy closer to unity, undoing Ottoman rule of the Balkans, and uniting Poland under foreign rule. Certainly the system remains massively vulnerable to liberal-national revolution in the future, and ATL differences make the outcome interesting in this regard, but not necessarily worse, quite the contrary. France is certainly going to be massively revisionist once it recovers, but again, not so different from what it tried to do in 1830-31 and 1854-71, if probably in a more antagonistic way.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 13, 2017 23:07:18 GMT
On my part, I have almost no problem at making North America mostly united by letting the British Empire avoid the loss of the 13 colonies with appropriate devolution reform in the 1750s, and subsequent victory against France and Spain to grab New France (like OTL), most of New Spain, and the Greater Antilles. My only problem at this is I regard the US version of the Anglosphere system/civilization rather more efficient and beneficial in the long term than the original British one, so if I have a choice about which one to boost into an hyperpower, I tend to prefer the improved 2.0 version. Then again, if we can concoct an appropriate PoD to turn the ARW crisis from an independence war into a revolution that transforms the British Empire at large into a US-style liberal federation, I'm onboard. Apart from this, my only issue about setting back the PoD at successful reform of British North America is the bigger amount of butterflies that are released for a scenario that is supposed to get fulfilled in the 1810s, and need to be harnessed to make the alt-Congress of Vienna scenario recognizable. That shows your lack of knowledge of the events. The American revolution was nothing to do with a lack of self-government as the colonies were almost totally self-governing. It was about two issues: a) The Americans objected to paying anything for their own defence, having got used to not doing so. b) They also wanted a free hand in seizing Indian lands and a fair number were resentful about the British agreement with the Indians after Pontiac's revolt which secured the bulk of the Indian territories against naked seizure. To you their a non-issue, because you want it to do. Ditto with the loss of security for their culture and language the French Canadians would suffer under American rule. They would no longer be able to restrict non-French settlers in their part of Canada or protect their language. With the Canadian in general why would they be happy to give up their lands and move half way around the world to the barely settled convict outpost of Ausytralia, just because a neighbouring thug mugged them and stole everything they had? Especially when they have an even more powerful relative who can restore their freedom. The other alternatives you suggest are extremely unlikely if you think about it. Newfoundland is too small and cold to hold so many people, the Caribbean is known for being extremely unhealthy and they can't predict that Britain will gain the southern cone in a dacades time, or S Africa at the same time. Much as you dislike the idea freedom does matter to a hell of a lot of people. The vast majority, especially if they have had experience of a better alternative, will not want to be 2nd class citizens in their own lands. Yes that would be better for your grandous plans but its still doubtful that the US can make such massive gains. The sort of greater centralisation of government didn't occur OTL because there was so much opposition to it and even then New England was seriously peeved off about US actions. In the sort of scenario your proposing you would probably see a hell of a lot more unrest, especially with the extra taxes your assuming. The Americans have just fought a long and bloody civil war because many of them didn't want to pay taxes, even for their own defences. The extra burden your suggesting is going to be unpopular. Especially if the government is explicit about their aims of imperial expansion. Britain isn't actually heavily involved in the Peninsula until 1809 when Moore's campaign ended at Corunna in January and with some reluctance the government agreed to Wellington's return to Portugal. You need about 1810 or later to be sure that Britain won't be able to easily turn its main strength against the back-stabbing yanks as they will be seen. France didn't push for Canada in 1783 simply because they knew by then they had no chance of taking it from Britain. If somehow Britain is just about totally defeated I could easily see France reminding the rebels who supplied the gold, guns, naval support and a lot of the troops that won their independence. With the threat that not only would this be useable again them but that they would have local support in defending Canada. Which would be pretty easy given the difficult of an overland approach in this time period and the massive French naval superiority against anything the US could produce. That is your assumption and its a big one. Why would the UK support America gaining control of vast areas from which British goods would be greatly restricted? Especially given the bad feeling towards the US in those circumstances. Except that was bloody enough and was a century later with much better ability to move people about. With ~1800 levels of technology and organisation your talking about a much higher proportional death rate. Given that Europe is trying to restrict massive levels of violence in this period in reaction to the two decades of war their just undergone I'm doubtful they would support the massive level of bloodshed and destruction your suggesting, especially given the additional costs. Yes Austria did hold a small part of this suggested new gain for a decade a century before but are you sure it was so easy or just assuming? They were driven out by the Turks again, albeit helped by a serious level of incompetence by elements of the Austrian army. I also note you didn't respond to my point about the large number of Christian groups in the Asian part of the Ottoman empire and the implied further massive explusion/slaughter of Muslims populations over large areas of it. You need to actually study the actual Congress, not just make assumptions. There was a hell of a lot of political manouvering by all the powers, both the giants and the medium powers you assume will simply be wiped out of existance without any problems. You nearly had another war, around a much smaller set of gains for Prussia and Russia than your suggesting here. Also your assuming a much costlier occupation of an embittered France, along with those influenced by ideas from the revolution, which none of the powers were eager for. The tyrannical aristocratic great powers didn't care much for the ordinary people across Europe but they did care about the opinions of their counterparts in other areas and the problems that trying to crush them so completely would cause. OTL was repressive but nothing like your proposing. Its going to be a hell of a lot more unstable and very likely to end up with massive bloodshed. Not to mention the failure of your desires. Also your argument for unified Germany and Italy is odd given your repeated rabid hatred of national identity. Not to mention at this point in time they would be politically impossible because they clashed with the desires of not just the medium powers but ALL the great ones. I don't have a wish for "more particularism and Balkanization" as you put it. I wish freedom of choice and are aware of the dangers of the sort of autocratic megastates you desire. The basic difference between us is you neither care about people or consider them important. Which is why you think free will can be suppressed so easily. To you their just numbers of units to be ordered about by your ruling elites as they choose.
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