Post by stevep on Mar 25, 2017 23:19:58 GMT
I think, as long as the Marathas are reasonably strong and not bickering between themselves too much there's not much of a vacuum to expand into. Especially since India is a lot more open to European ideas than China for instance so itf it did establish a stable dynasty for a century or so its likely to be strong enough to develop technologically and industrially and largely avoid European territorial inroads. In fact under those circumstances your likely to see the other nations losing their enclaves such as Pondicherry and Goa as well. Europeans will likely dominate foreign trade and also interaction with other external powers for a while but if India reforms it could possibly not do a full Japan but be powerful enough it increasingly dominates the Indian Ocean by say 1850-1900.
This assumes the Marathas can establish such a stable state. Their tendency to clash between the various groups and possibly also their origins as Hindu groups opposing the religious bigotry of Aurangzeb if that means they end up persecuting religious minorities themselves. This could include the Muslims, used to being in control, the Silks and any Christian groups which might be seen as a potential 5th column.
Ironically, checking the Wiki page for them there were three Anglo-Maratha wars and the 1st, 1775-1782 was actually won by the Marathas. [The article is a bit unclear with an obvious error in the 1st part of the background]. Part of the problem here seems to be that the British were divided in their decisions, with Warren Hastings, the Governor General overruling the council in Bombay and that in turn overruling lower groups. Also this period was probably not a good time for the British to be involved in war with the dominate state in India given events elsewhere.
No my point was that after the defeat at Panipat and British success in Bengal the question was still in at least some doubt and the EIC actually lost the 1st war against the Marathas. [Which I wasn't aware of]. Knew that with the Wellesley family later Britain won the later conflicts and secured dominance over India. As such if they win at Panipat without being seriously weakened then they might achieve the aim of breaking British power in Bengal. If so and presuming they are able to maintain a stable system in the following century or so you could well see Indian staying outside of foreign control, whether European or other.